We will continue to focus on technical, Swiss franc crosses. The break of the USD / CHF 0.9176 microfinance indicates a deep fall. But a continuous break of 0.9090 support is still needed to turn the full prospect into a temporary outlook. EUR / CHF is heading towards a low and strong break of 1.0298 confirms the resumption of the medium term. Meanwhile, as previously reported, the GBP / CHF breakout of 1.2465 indicates that it is higher than 1.2276 and will lead to a sharp decline.
In Europe, at the time of writing, the FTSE was down -0.56%. DAX decreased -1.93%. CAC decreased -2.08%. Germany’s 10-year output rose 0.006 to 0.198. Previously in Asia, the Nikkei was down -0.78%. Hong Kong HSI decreased -0.65% China Shanghai SSE -0.00%. The Singapore Street Times is up 0.22 percent. Japan 10-year JGB production decreased -0.0115 to 0.209.
UK PMI production remained unchanged at 57.3, services jumped to 60.2
UK PMI manufacturing remained unchanged at 57.3 in February, down from 57.5. PMI services rose 54.1 to 60.8, above 55.2, 8-month high. PMI Composite rose from 54.2 to 60.2, as well as an 8-month high.
According to Chris Williamson, chief economist at IHS Markit
The latest PMI data shows that the economy is recovering in February as business activity continues to grow due to the relaxation of the CVD-19 holding measures.
“With PMI output rising sharply in February and inflation reaching its second-highest level, the potential for further tightening policy is slim, with a third setback in March likely. .
“However, there are indications of a growing problem for manufacturers, and the service sector needs to monitor the signs of a new business index. The rising cost of living, rising energy prices, and the worsening crisis in Ukraine have all added to the negative.
Bundesbank: German economy declines in winter, revives in spring
According to Bundesbank’s latest monthly report, German economic output is likely to decline sharply in the winter of 2022.
But economic prospects are “good.” “In light of the very good demand, the German economy should accelerate again in the spring as long as the epidemic subsides and supply bottlenecks continue to decline,” he said.
“Therefore, in light of today’s forecast for December 2021, the burden of the epidemic and inflation is slightly lower than expected,” the experts concluded.
Euro zone PMI output fell to 58.4, but services jumped to 55.8.
Euro zone PMI manufacturing fell slightly from 58.7 to 58.4 in February, below 58.7. PMI services, however, are down 51.1. To 55.8, 51.7 more than expected. PMI combined rose 52.3 to 55.8, 5-month high.
According to Chris Williamsson, chief economist at IHS Markit,
By easing anti-virus restrictions, the eurozone economy revived in February, reviving demand for a wide range of consumer services, such as travel, tourism and entertainment, and easing supply bottlenecks. As companies seek to re-open the economy by encouraging more employment, optimism in the business has improved.
“However, despite the easing, supply constraints are still widespread and are leading to increasing labor disputes. As a result, demand has once again been given to producers and service providers for more than just supply. At the same time, rising energy costs and rising wages have pushed up inflation, the highest selling price in a quarter of a century.
“The strength of the PMI-branded business is strong evidence that the economy has so far shown resilience in the wake of the Omicron storm, but inflation is expected to continue in the ECB.
German PMI manufacturing fell 59.8 to 58.5 in February, down from 59.4. PMI services rose 52.2 to 56.6 in February, more than expected from 53.2, the highest in six months. PMI Composite rose from 53.8 to 56.2, and is the highest in six months.
French PMI manufacturing rose from 55.5 to 57.6 in February, higher than expected from 55.5, the highest in 7 months. PMI services rose 53.1 to 57.9, higher than expected at 53.5, the highest in 49 months. The combined PMI rose from 52.7 to 57.4 which is the highest in 8 months.
Australia’s PMI index jumped to 55.9 and the economy rebounded rapidly
Australian PMI manufacturing rose from 55.1 to 57.6 in February. PMI services jumped from 46.6 to 56.4, an 8-month high. PMI Composite rose from 46.7 to 55.9, as well as an 8-month high.
Gingi Pan, Associate Director of Economics at IHS Markit, said:
“The Australian economy rebounded in February, according to the IHS Markit Flash Australia Composite PMI in early 2022, after being hit by a COVID-19 Omicron storm.
“Both demand and production have returned to growth, and the February hire was good. That said, the shortage of inputs and manpower remains a matter for private sector organizations. This led to a significant increase in input prices while inflation was selling out, according to the latest PMI study. While this may not be surprising in the first phase of the new CV-19 wave, the impact on overall inflation and wages should be closely monitored.
“Trade confidence between private sector companies rebounded in February after a short hiatus in January, reflecting the recent short-lived nature of the latest COVID-19 wave, which was a positive sign.
Japan’s PMI fell to 52.9 in February, while its services fell to 42.7
Japan PMI manufacturing fell 55.4 to 52.9 in February, down from 55.0. PMI services fell sharply from 47.6 to 42.7, the worst read since May 2020. PMI Composite dropped from 49.9 to 44.6.
According to IHS Markit Economist Usama Bhati:
“In February, the Japanese private sector was heavily contracted out, as the Covidy-19 Omicron variant allowed Japan to record case numbers and increase sanctions. The decline in the service sector, the second largest in a series of months since the first wave of the May 2020 pandemic, is the second in a series. Five months, although the contract size is much smoother and generally lighter than in the main service sector.
“For the first time since September, private sector companies have noticed a general decline in trade, largely due to domestic declines and new export orders. , The highest average freight since February 2008.
Although the resurgence of COVID-19 has darkened its outlook and lowered its optimism to six months, companies have been hoping for improvement next year.
USD / CHF Medium Day View
Daily Pillars: (S1) 0.9197; (P) 0.9208; (R1) 0.9223; Additional….
Daily bias in USD / CHF with a slight support of 0.9176. A fall of 0.9341 could now target 0.9090 near the time support. He argues that the slowdown from 0.8925 is over and there is a deep fall for this support. However, more than 0.9217 minor objections are reverted to neutral bias, and for a while remain a mild sweet taste.
In the bigger picture, the medium-term view is better neutral as long as there is a resistance of 0.9471. The major downtrend could still extend to 0.8756 (2021 low). However, they argue that the trend of 0.9471 has already reversed and that the rally has shifted from 0.8756 to another stimulus.
Improvement of economic indicators
|22:00||AUD||CBA Production PMI February P||57.6|
|22:00||AUD||CBA Services PMI February P||56.4|
|00:30||JPY||Production PMI February P||52.9||55||55.4|
|07:00||Euro||Germany PII M / M January||2.20%||1.50%||5.00%|
|07:00||Euro||Germany PPI Y / Y January||25.00%||24.20%||24.20%|
|08 ፡ 15||Euro||French Manufacturing PMI Feb P||57.6||55.5||55.5|
|08 ፡ 15||Euro||French Services PMI February P||57.9||53.5||53.1|
|08 ፡ 30||Euro||German Manufacturing PMI Feb P||58.5||59.4||59.8|
|08 ፡ 30||Euro||German Services PMI February P||56.6||53.2||52.2|
|09:00||Euro||Euro Zone Production PMI February P||58.4||58.7||58.7|
|09:00||Euro||Euro Zone Services PMI February P||55.8||51.7||51.1|
|09’s 30||British pound||Production PMI February P||57.3||57.5||57.3|
|09’s 30||British pound||Services PMI February P||60.8||55.2||54.1|