S&P 500 slide and dollar increase without clear break when liquid highway goes

SPDR S&P 500 ETF, Nasdaq 100, VIX and monetary policy discussion points

  • The S&P 500 completed a moving swing to finish this past week, but the index has no clear connection.
  • For the S&P 500, the dollar rally pushed its upper boundary for several weeks without making a clear move.
  • While there are some well-known risk factors and open themes, such as monetary policy, the name of the game remains elusive until the new year.

Disaster trends change to Topsy-Turvy.

A.D. By 2021, there will be two weeks left until we are completely defeated. But this does not mean that we need to look for capital markets for normal, medium-term growth based on systematic basics or straightforward technical designs. In fact, during the last two weeks of the year, things are going from bad to worse. At extreme extremes, we close the past with great pressure. Despite comparisons between Dow and Russell 2000, the US indexes are represented by the S&P 500. After failing to record a break last week following the FOMC decision, the benchmark index extended its decline. In a short five-day performance, the fourth technical decline was down to -1.9 percent. Despite that pressure, we have not yet experienced a major technical breakdown in the bull market. This is remarkable because of the ATR, which is in conflict with strong historical conditions. Can we see rest during these dark hours?

Chart SPDR S&P 500 ETF with 20 and 100-day SMAs with voice (daily)

Slide and dollar increase without clear break as S&P 500 liquid highs

Chart created. Tradingview Platform

While I was watching the region develop like the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average, my focus was still on speed indicators. Fluid estimates are not serious, and we do not need to be distracted. Behind the scenes, such as the DAX, is a technically attractive and basic story, carrying merchants, emerging market and treasury products, among other secret measures. A similar story unfolds. In the aftermath of a more serious disaster, driving around the popular price index as a tech-heavy index has seen a dramatic change in recent weeks. According to the accusation, we are in a more systematic upheaval, but it is not easy to deal with exaggerated risk in the area where we find ourselves.

Nasdaq 100 to Dow Jones Ratio (Daily) chart

Slide and dollar increase without clear break as S&P 500 liquid highs

Chart created. Tradingview Platform

Overall, I am very interested in the technical solutions that have been released in major markets. But I know that it will no longer be possible to have a clear break and a productive trend. In addition to the latest evidence of references, we have deep-rooted current prospects for setting business goals. When it comes to activity, history shows 51St The week of the year (which we are entering) is significantly lower than the previous session. It should come as no surprise that this natural disaster quickly precedes Christmas. On-the-go slide usually results in a decrease in liquid volume (or vice versa), but if traders are staying for more than one session or less than a month, it is a good idea to keep an eye on the transfer clip when implementing their business structures.

Average weekly VIX performance per calendar week

Slide and dollar increase without clear break as S&P 500 liquid highs

Chart created by John Kickler with information from the S&P 500

Similar to the expectations for the second-to-last week volatility, the historical performance of capital market benchmarks such as the S&P 500 follows a well-documented script. To be fair, SPX suffered a loss (-1.9%) this past week, which seems to be in line with the risk of last-year event and long-term averages that reflect the end of the mid-term interest. The expectations for the Christmas business are likely to set in the coming weeks, which could significantly weaken the trend. That is, erroneous fluctuations aggravated by thin business conditions should be considered rational traps by the end of December.

Average weekly S&P 500 performance per calendar week

Slide and dollar increase without clear break as S&P 500 liquid highs

Chart created by John Kickler with information from the S&P 500

Similar to the situation in traditional risk assets, the US dollar has gained volatility without a technical solution; And it is impossible to get the light that guides it before the end of the year. There is a tight range on the GreenBack (DXY Trade Weight Index), which is highly likely to fall apart during the trading year. However, following is a very different concept. A month-long maintenance in the top tier over the years seems to be the main candidate for the market to reach system popularity, but even the falcon Fed hopes are not already a natural lift for the giant corner of the market.

Chart DXY Dollar Index over 100-day SMA, 20-day ATR and range over 2-year US. (daily)

Slide and dollar increase without clear break as S&P 500 liquid highs

Chart created. Tradingview Platform

If technical progress is expected in the next two weeks, I do not see much motivation to discuss the issue. The risk of a planned event is particularly high; But when it comes to pressure, the US PCE Defender – the Federation’s favorite inflation indicator – will be at the top of my watch list. There are subtle and unresolved hazards in the future that have the potential to have a major impact on the fluidity-disruptive conditions ahead of us. Monetary policy as a whole remains a contentious issue. It is worth considering the unequivocal changes in international monetary policy last month, which show that the central bank’s support, which seems to be low, has its own limitations to appeal for relative output. Otherwise, my belief in any emerging market stimulus is based on the emergence of omega-‘s issues in the US and the subsequent announcement that it is the ultimate ranking agency to move China overseas on a global scale or post-poor and poor. To the default default state.

Relative monetary policy position chart

Slide and dollar increase without clear break as S&P 500 liquid highs

A table made by John Kickler


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