Ukraine is a glimmer of hope, but the situation is dangerous.
As we move into the new week, the situation in Ukraine and the war of words between Russia and the West will continue to unravel in a short period of time, which will reduce the impact of future economic data releases (see below). Investigators are feeling the pinch as the stock market recovers over the weekend. There is hope for some kind of peace after the Kremlin announced that Putin had agreed to hold talks with Ukraine’s Zelinsky. But the situation is dangerous and there are no guarantees.
Stay away from geopolitical federal policy on inflation
Meanwhile, as we approach March, investors’ attention may gradually shift away from geopolitics, which will be another important month in the market, as the federation will eventually raise interest rates and launch a major bailout this year, which will help inflation. The president of the St. Louis Federation, James Bullard, has repeatedly stated that he supports 100 key points by the end of June. The latest information continues to show high prices. The federation’s popular inflation rate was higher than expected on Friday because the core PCE index rose to its highest level since 1982 before I was born. It rose to 5.2% year-on-year in January, up from 4.9% in December.
Data highlights for next week
Next week we will have a final screenshot of the US out-of-farm activity and payroll, with the latest CPI inflation forecast ahead of the FOMC meeting on March 16 next week. Between 25- or 50-base-point speed increase. Here’s the agenda for next week:
On the first day of the week after the most volatile month, window dressings are likely to be highly volatile by fund managers and further Ukraine-related volatility.
With long locks in Australia and a slight reduction in wage growth of 2.3% over the last quarter, the RBA may remain unchanged at 0.1% at this meeting. The focus will be on the language he uses to prepare for the market around August. If it already indicates a price increase, the OCC may be meeting.
Unlike the RBA, the BOC is expected to take into account 25 key points, particularly with rising oil prices and a slowdown in the Canadian economy.
The euro zone’s CPI is expected to hit a record 5.3% and this will definitely push the ECB to strengthen its policy quickly. Will the euro finally line up?
Before the FOMC met on March 16, there was no farming report and no paycheck. If the data is healthy, the 25 point increase is worth the full price and will not move the market much.