Forex Forecast : Pairs in Focus

The difference between success and failure in a forex trading largely depends on the currency pairs you choose to trade on each week and in what direction, and not on the exact trading strategies you can use to determine trading inputs and outputs.

At the beginning of the trading week, it is a good idea to look at the big picture of what is happening in the market as a whole and how such developments and macro foundation and market sentiment are affecting them.

The Fox / CFD market is currently showing some trends in some commodities and stock market indexes.

Large image 20We February 2022

Market sentiment continues to build on the Ukrainian border and on the Russian military. CPI data from G7 nations higher than expected. This has put a strain on stocks and commodities, including gold.

The Fox market has moved slightly over the past week, but some soft products, such as soy and corn, remain very good and long-term.Gold traded more than $ 1,900 in a 6-month high.

Last week marked the fourth consecutive week of declining global coronavirus cases.

In my post last week, I wrote that the best deals of the week could be WTI crude oil and corn, as well as soy with over $ 26.87. Although Teucrium Corn ETF increased by 1.07%, WTI crude oil decreased by 2.00%, resulting in an average loss of 0.47% for the week.

Basic analysis and market sentiment

Last week’s headline: G7 inflation could be a continuation of (30-year high CPI data from the UK and Canada) and a possible war between Russia and Ukraine. President Biden believes Russia could be attacked in the coming days. This is creating some sense of risk and possibly increasing the price of some goods. Commodities perform well in areas of high inflation and low interest rates That is why we see it Gold prices have reached a six-month high.

It should also be noted that last week was almost bad for the major stock indexes, with the S&P 500 index showing a strong technical pattern of low and high levels. The index is trading below the 200-day moving average, which is typically a bear sign.

Coming next week, markets under the motto of high inflation and negative real interest rates are expected to see lower or similar fluctuations compared to last week with strong commodities, especially precious metals, energy and agriculture. However, If Russia invades Ukraine, this will probably create a boom in the market. In addition, there are some economic data that will be released this week as needed:

  1. U.S. Gross Domestic Product
  2. US Core PCE Price Index
  3. UK monetary policy reporting hearings
  4. New Zealand Reserve Bank Official Currency and Monetary Policy Statement

Last week, globally tested new coronavirus cases fell again for the fourth week in a row. An estimated 61.9% of the world’s population now has at least one vaccine.

Newly confirmed cholera cases are currently occurring in Belarus, Bhutan, Burma, Cambodia, Chile, Guatemala, Iceland, Indonesia, South Korea, Latvia, New Zealand, Russia, Singapore, Slovakia, Thailand, Tonga and Vietnam. .

Technical analysis

US Dollar Index

Below shows the weekly price chart US Dollar Index A candlestick near Doji, which was also technically a carrier. A candle to be swallowed Last week, the price continued to rally between the 12086 support level and the 12293 resistance level.. Prices are clearly rising but there is still a strong long-term bullying trend, the price is higher than it was 6 months ago and slightly higher than it was 3 months ago, which means the bullying trend is nearing its end.

However, if the support level of 12086 remains high, the long-term bullish trend may resume.

Overall, it seems clear that we still have a bullish picture in the USD On long and medium termsBut in the Forex market The green back does not seem to be the main driver of the price now. It may be a better time to trade currencies than dollars.

Gold

The price of gold has been building a high base for the past 6 months and could be extended. While gold prices have risen sharply in the past two weeks, last week’s closing price is the highest since May 2021.

The bullies we see here are probably driven by rising inflation in the G7 countries and the prospect of war between Russia and Ukraine.

Real negative interest rates and geopolitical instability make gold attractive. However, Bulls may have to be careful with the current price of $ 1,917 and, of course, the core turnover at $ 2,000 or more than the previous stop.

Gold weekly chart

S&P 500 Index

After a long bull market, the US stock market fell to the correctional zone in early 2022, falling more than 10% higher than ever. Although it is possible to recover two to three weeks ago. Prices are once again trading below the 200-day moving average, which is a sign of depression. The unseen 50-day moving average is close to a Moving average crossing Below 200-day moving average. This “cross of death” will soon be another sign of depression.

The chart below shows a very clear level of protection published at 4596.11.

Shares are high in the face of rising inflation and, more importantly, the impending war between Russia and Ukraine.

For beginners, I do not recommend lowering the stock market index. Going too long in this picture is definitely a bad idea.

S&P 500 Index

Soybeans

In recent weeks, the price of many agricultural “soft” products has been rising sharplyWe are witnessing high inflation and negative interest rates in many countries.

Last week ended with the highest weekly closing in seven years..

It is important to look for long-term commodities during this time of high inflation.Although they know that the volatility of soft goods can be very high, it is important to trade in relatively small areas.

If this ETF closes at more than $ 26.87 a day this week, I would like to see soybeans as an exciting purchase.

Teucrium Soybean ETF Daily Chart

With corn

Along with soy, corn has recently increased in price, but more strongly. Last week’s inflation saw a sharp rise in candlesticks after the biggest weekly closing in five years since last week.And the price ended the week near the highest price point of the week.

I consider corn to be an attractive commodity, as products such as corn are relatively stable in today’s high inflation.

Teucrium Corn ETF Weekly Chart

at last

This week I see the best opportunities in the financial markets following soybeans worth more than $ 26.87 worth of gold and corn.

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